- Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?

Quarter |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |

1 |
923 | 1112 | 1243 |

2 |
1056 | 1156 | 1301 |

3 |
1124 | 1124 | 1254 |

4 |
992 | 1078 | 1198 |

- Use a multiple regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data. Qtr1 = 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; Qtr3 = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise.
- Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year based on the model developed in part b.

- Compare the three-period moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using
*α*= 0.3. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?